IPCC Synthesis "...abrupt or irreversible climate changes and impacts..."

Heart-heavy reading, with an impact like the doctor telling you that you have a very serious problem:

clipped from abc.net.au Global warming could be irreversible: IPCC Posted 2 hours 48 minutes ago — AAP The UN's Nobel-winning panel on climate change completed a draft report that said the consequences of global warming could be "irreversible". The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) encapsulates a massive review of the global warming issue, with the goal of guiding policy-makers for the next five years. Human activities "could lead to abrupt or irreversible climate changes and impacts," the agreed text said. The so-called synthesis report summarises the main points from three massive documents issued this year covering the evidence for climate change; the present and possible future impacts of it; and the options for tackling the peril. After Saturday, attention will shift to a meeting in Bali, Indonesia, next month. Governments will try to set down a 'roadmap' for negotiations that will end in a deal to cut carbon emissions and help developing nations adapt to climate change.

2:39 AM: Well, that was the ABC carrying AAP. A quick Google shows that the Brisbane Times are the only other media to pick up this story so far. There's a lot more detail, starting with the death-knell for climate change denialism:

The IPCC experts agreed that the rise in Earth's temperature observed in the past few decades was principally due to human causes, not natural ones, as "climate skeptics" often aver.

The impacts of climate change are already visible, in the form of retreating glaciers and snow loss in alpine regions, thinning Arctic summer sea ice and thawing permafrost, according to predictions in the three IPCC reports issued earlier this year.

By 2100, global average surface temperatures could rise by between 1.1 C (1.98 F) and 6.4 C (11.52 F) compared to 1980-99 levels, while sea levels will rise by between 18 and 59 centimetres (7.2 and 23.2 inches), according to the IPCC's forecast.

Heatwaves, rainstorms, drought, tropical cyclones and surges in sea level are among the events expected to become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense this century.

As a result, water shortages, hunger, flooding and damage to homes will be a heightened threat.

"All countries" will be affected, says the IPCC. Those bearing the brunt, though, will be poor countries which incidentally bear the least responsibility for creating the problem.

Yan Hong, deputy secretary of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), one of the IPCC's two parent bodies, warned on Monday that climate change bore "potential implications for world peace" by intensifying squabbles over water, food and energy.

"It could also lead to massive population resettlement, especially to urban areas that may not have capacity to shelter, feed and employ them," he said.

The IPCC won this year's Nobel Peace Prize alongside climate campaigner and former US vice president Al Gore.

The panel, comprising specialists in atmospheric chemistry, ocean biology, glaciation, economics and many other disciplines, issues regular reviews, called assessment reports, on global warming.

It has been widely praised for the impartiality and objectivity of its reports, although this year some experts have said its review process may be too conservative and slow-moving to assess what now transpires to be a fast-moving problem.

This year's is the fourth assessment report since the IPCC was established in 1988 by the WMO and UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

© 2007 AFP

Climate Change in Australia

The CSIRO and the BOM put their heads together to work out what the findings of the 2007 IPCC Report means to Australia.

In a nutshell, we have to dramatically reduce emissions to keep Australia's average temperature from increasing more than the 1% that is already programmed into the system.

If this is a Government agency report, then how can any self-respecting Government ignore the implications.

clipped from www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their fourth assessment report, concluding that: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Humans are very likely to be causing most of the warming that has been experienced since 1950 It is very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue well into the future, and that they will be larger than those seen in the recent past. These changes have the potential to have a major impact on human and natural systems throughout the world including Australia. The IPCC reports provide limited detail on Australian climate change, particularly when it comes to regional climate change projections. For this reason the Australian Greenhouse Office, through the Australian Climate Change Science Programme, engaged CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology to develop climate change projections for Australia.

Climate change: In graphics

Graphic depictions of the IPPCs predictions for emissions scenarios for the turn of the century. One way or another it is going to be hotter.

clipped from news.bbc.co.uk It is "very likely" that human activity is the cause for climate change, scientists from over 130 countries have concluded. The graphics below illustrate their predictions on just how much global temperatures may rise over the next century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that temperatures are most likely to rise by 1.8C-4C by 2100. But the possible range is much greater; 1.1C-6.4C. The maps above show how a range of three different scenarios will affect different parts of the planet. The emissions scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, used to create the maps above, are based on a range of detailed economic and technological data. These versions of the future consider different population increases, fossil and alternative fuel use, and consequent CO2 increases. The broad range of outcomes they show is displayed in the charts below. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas, its rise since the industrial revolution is clear. Burning coal, using oil and deforestation Global Warning Climate Change

One billion climate refugees in our lifetimes

But, don't worry, Howard's proven Pacific solution will deter them from coming to Australia.

clipped from www.smh.com.au A BILLION people - one in seven people on Earth today - could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years as the effects of climate change worsen an already serious migration crisis, a new report from Christian Aid predicts. The report, based on the latest United Nations population and climate-change figures, says conflict, large-scale development projects and widespread environmental deterioration will combine to make life unsupportable for hundreds of millions of people, mostly in the Sahara belt, South Asia and the Middle East. About 155 million people are known to be displaced now by conflict, natural disaster and development projects. This figure could be augmented by as many as 850 million, as more people are expected to be affected by water shortages, sea level crises, deteriorating pasture land, conflicts and famine, the report says. Global Warning Climate Change Refugees

$10 per person will beat global warming

Kevin Grandia of the global warming denialist-busting website, DeSmogBlog, has done the calculations - it only takes $10 per person per year to save the planet.

He broadcast this email (which I amended to include his updated calculations).

4 May 07

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it would cost .12% of the world's domestic product to substantially reduce our collective greenhouse gas emissions.

• GDP of the world economy: US$60 trillion
• .12% of $60 trillion: $70 billion
• Total population of the earth: 6.5 billion
• Cost per person to significantly reduce heat-trapping gas worldwide: $10 a year
• Cost of saving the planet from droughts, famine, mass flooding, species extinction and rising sea levels: priceless.

His maths: $60 trillion/.0012/6.5 billion = $10 (rounded figures). He points out that it is more useful to break down the global figure by country and filter it though its GDP. For example, for Gambians this would cost $2.00 per head, and for Americans the cost would be $478.

Tags: global warming, climate change

Upbeat IPCC report points to an energy revolution.

In its third and final key findings, the IPCC panel reports:

■ A cost of $US20-50 a tonne of atmospheric carbon would have a big impact on cutting harmful emissions. "It could lead to a power generation sector with low greenhouse gas emission by 2050."

■ This would allow renewable energy to have a 30 to 35 per cent share of total electricity supply by 2030.

■ Nuclear power would provide only an additional 2 per cent of the world's electricity supply by 2030 because it is too expensive, and "safety, weapons proliferation and waste remain as constraints".

■ Clean coal technology has the potential to make an important contribution by 2030.

■ Improving efficiency of energy supply and use would play a key role in reducing emissions by up to 30 billion tonnes a year by 2030.

clipped from www.smh.com.au THE cost of saving the planet from catastrophic climate change will not be a major burden on the world economy, shaving only a small amount from global growth if governments act now, says a report by the United Nations expert panel on climate change. A former CSIRO climate chief, Dr Graeme Pearman, of Monash University, said the impact on a healthy economy would be small. "The cost of letting climate change happen is a lot more than the cost of mitigation." Stabilising greenhouse gas emissions at a level that can limit the temperature rise to 2 to 3 degrees would reduce annual gross domestic product growth rates by only 0.12 per cent, the report said. Global emissions would need to be slashed between 50 and 85 per cent by 2050 from levels in 2000.

Computers can't keep up with melting Arctic

Out of an exercise mapping real-world observations to computer climate models comes news that global warming is more accelerated than the scientific consensus holds.

Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado co-authored the latest study of Arctic ice melt, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, with other scientists from NSIDC and from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), also in Boulder, Colorado.

This is the third piece of recent evidence that the IPCC forecasts err on the conservative side.

clipped from news.bbc.co.uk

Arctic melt faster than forecast

By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News website Arctic summer ice has been shrinking by about 9% per decade Arctic ice is melting faster than computer models of climate calculate, according to a group of US researchers. Since 1979, the Arctic has been losing summer ice at about 9% per decade, but models on average produce a melting rate less than half that figure. The scientists suggest forecasts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be too cautious. The latest observations indicate that Arctic summers could be ice-free by the middle of the century.

IPCC Report specifics for Australia

IPCC Report implications for Australia:

* more drought, fires and inundation caused by sea-level rises
* withdrawal on private insurance on coastal properties
* increased water security problems
* areas of the coast, especially Cairns and south-east Queensland, face increased risks from sea-level rises and "increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding"


"Hot spot" regions:

* the Murray-Darling Basin
* south-east Queensland
* Kakadu
* the Queensland wet tropics
* the Snowy Mountains
* the drought-prone south-west of Western Australia


Are Aussies seriously going to stand back and let this happen to our World Heritage sites? Or the rest of the planet? :::[SMH]

The draft summary noted that many of these hot spots include World Heritage sites, but the Federal Government had this reference cut during the process where every line of the report's summary for policy makers is debated.

It's time to vote in a government that serious about dealing with climate change and vote out the one that would betray our trust... and then get on with the job of saving those sites as best we can. It's going to be a long haul, inter-generational. And we have to start now.

Global Warning Climate Change Environment Science CO2 Carbon Sink Earth Australia Kyoto Energy

IPCC's clarion call

Coming to an IPCC Report near you. :::[SMH: Window closing on planet's chances]

"Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt."

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is due out tomorrow, and that is some of the wording just agreed upon between scientists and governments after last-minute objections from the US, China and Saudi Arabia over wording and graphics sparked an all night dispute.

I've been listening to the BBC coverage of the release. AGW's happening. And it's alarming. There is no other word. There is good observational data, now, to prove that the climate-models are accurately forecasting. Game over for sceptics, and game over non-renewable energy sources. Or it's game over for life as we know it. That's what they are telling us.

Global Warning Climate Change Australia Kyoto Energy

Get your greenhouse confusion here

Andrew Bolt is useful for collating the ragtag bunch of sorry-arsed denialists who are still left standing after the 2007 IPCC report tsunamied out of Paris across the globe:

UPDATE

IPCC warming shock. Dissent not crushed!

Shooting back are:

Professor Steve McIntyre’s blog
Lord Monckton
Senator Inhofe
Fred Singer
Jake Young
Professor Philip Stott

How proud he must be, facilitating such ignorance.

Global Warning Climate Change IPPCKyoto Energy

Stern view of global warming deniers after IPCC report

Sir Nicholas Stern take a dim view of the remaining global warming denial objections in the wake of the IPCC report. :::[SMH]

"I have heard three kinds of argument claiming that it is not necessary to combat climate change," Sir Nicholas told a conference in Paris on Friday."

Myth 1: The scientist are wrong about global warming

The assessment by the IPCC said global warming was almost certainly caused by humans, and carbon pollution disgorged this century would disrupt the climate system for a thousand years.

Myth Busted: The scientist are wrong about global warming

"After the report of the IPCC [UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] released today, this position is untenable," the former World Bank chief economist said."

Myth 2: We needn't change because Science (clean-coal, saviour technology) will save us

The familiar logic of the favourite rationalisation of the adolescent smoker, that advances in medicine will save them from cancer in time, is recruited to carry this argument by such esteemed notables as our own prime minister, John Winston Howard. It's ironic that such science-defying thinking can place such faith in future science.

Myth Busted: We needn't change because Science (clean-coal, saviour technology) will save us

"That is an irresponsible position, because it does not take into account the real risks linked to a very high rise in temperatures, for example in the case of a world where temperatures rise by five or six degrees.", said Sir Nicholas. Five or six degrees Celsius is nine to 10.8 Fahrenheit.

Myth 3: Global warming is not our problem - it's a long way away

This is similar to the related 'global warming as plant fertiliser' myth that increased carbon dioxide will fuel increased crop growth. It also feeds myth 2.

Myth Busted: Global warming is not our problem - it's a long way away

Those who dismissed the consequences of global warming as a remote, long-term problem were "indefensible from an ethical point of view," he said.

In a report commissioned by the British government last year, Stern warned that without urgent action, the fallout of climate change could be on the scale of the two world wars and the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Singling out current and rising economic powerhouses the United States, China and India, he said the world must be prepared to pay now -- in the form of green taxes or emissions trading schemes -- to prevent economic disaster.

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Florida tornado kills 19 - withdraw emissions now

When I hear of a suicide bombing that kills a big number in Iraq straight after the Iraq Study Group withdrawal recommendations, I think, "C'on Bushy, surely this prompts you into taking the recommendations more soberly, and spurs you into a frenzy of remedial action?".

So the day after the release of the 2007 IPCC report telling us there is only a less than ten percent chance we are wrong about global warming, when I read of a tornado killing 19 in Florida, I think same.

Except now I can't stomach using the jovial "Bushy" to mask the depths of my feelings towards his incompetence - I am forced to see him as more defoliated and dumber in the light of reality, "C'on Twiggy^*, surely this prompts you into taking the recommendations more soberly, and spurs you into a frenzy of remedial action?": :::[SMH]

I am cautious attributing a single extreme weather event to global warming - one swallow doth not a summer make - but come on people, if you look up you can see entire gulps of swallows passing. We are way into the season.

Here is a summary of what the IPCC report has to say about extreme weather: :::[The Age: Key points in the UN experts' report]

Hurricanes

■ The report says it is "more likely than not" that a trend of increasing intense tropical cyclones and hurricanes has a human cause. It expects tropical cyclones to become more intense in the future. "There may not be an increase in number, there may be a redistribution to more intense events — which is what has been observed in the Atlantic since 1970," Mr Stott said

^*With apologies to Twiggy Lawson.

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2007 IPCC report released to the world

The much awaited 2007 IPPC Report was delivered in Paris last night: :::[SMH]

A turbulent future of violent storms, devastating drought, higher temperatures and rising sea levels is inevitable, according to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which released its 1200-page report in Paris last night. The work of 2500 scientists over six years, it is considered the most authoritative evaluation of climate change ever produced.

Great solemnity had marked it's release European cities. The 20,000 light bulbs on the Eiffel Tower were turned off for five minutes the night before, and blackouts were staged in the Colosseum in Rome and the Greek Parliament in Athens. The Spanish were not to be outdone and the Puerta de Alcal in Madrid, the Giralda Tower in Seville and landmarks in the ancient Mediterranean city of Valencia were plunged into darkness. There has been a sea-change in the general public awareness of global warming since the 2001 IPPC Report, boosted by the worldwide success of An Inconvenient Truth, and the conversions of big business to the need for a carbon price signal, and of the powerful Murdoch press to the cause. The release of the Stern Report knocked out the denialists argument that changing the status quo would send our economies into tailspin. It turns to the opposite is true - the cost of not reducing emissions is estimates to be 20 times the cost of not doing anything.

Six scenarios depicting temperature rises from 1.1 degrees to potentially 6.4 degrees Celsius are presented, along with the claim that it is 90 per cent certainty that we who burn fossil-fuels are the cause of the global warming of the last 50 years. The anthropogenic cause is now defined as "very likely" , whereas in the previous IPCC report it was defined as "likely", or a 65 per cent certainty.

The scientists have finished their job. Only fool waits for 100 per cent certainty of an impending and irreversible disaster.

The rest is up to us. The situation requires immediate and urgent and lasting action.


Global Warning Climate Change 2007 IPCC Report Energy