Sunday, October 26, 2008

CCS — Use It Or Lose It

One of the most compelling chapters in the PBS Frontline 2-hour special on global warming that aired earlier this week was the segment on America's Addiction to Coal.
PBS dives headfirst into the myth of clean coal and pretty much tears it apart using something we don't often see these days when it come US energy issues: facts.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Pay the deniers, call the tune

frankbi of the International Journal of Inactivism is onto something:

So, what prompted me to write the above long-winded complaint was a page on the Heartland Institute’s web site, on how people can sponsor their upcoming climate inactivist conference. It’s the kind of jaw-dropping thing that made me think, “Oy, why am I the one writing about this?...

I blogged about their program, earlier. But, with none of the intrepid reportage of citizen frankbi:

Yep, you read that right. First, sponsors will have a hand in deciding what the topics of the conference will be. I must say — my friends — this is totally above and beyond what actual serious scientific conferences do! (My experience is that the conference organizers will just give them some booth space to tout their stuff and recruit folks, and perhaps a time slot for them to talk about their fine work.)

Second, note that there’s no fee for sponsorship — yes, no fee — but “sponsors” are asked to spread the word about the conference and to get people to attend. That is, Heartland is looking for sponsorship not in the form of money, but in the form of noise. The more noise, the merrier.

And… one other thing: According to the registration information for the conference, there’s a 20% registration fee discount for signers of the “Oregon Petition”. I still can’t tell what Heartland’s trying to achieve with this move.


They can use their Frequent Denier's point.

 

Arctic melt season post mortem

From The National Snow and Ice Data Center:

2 October 2008

Arctic Sea Ice Down to Second-Lowest Extent; Likely Record-Low Volume

Despite cooler temperatures and ice-favoring conditions, long-term decline continues

Arctic sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to the second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on September 14, 2008. Average sea ice extent over the month of September, a standard measure in the scientific study of Arctic sea ice, was 4.67 million square kilometers (1.80 million square miles) (Figure 1). The record monthly low, set in 2007, was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles); the now-third-lowest monthly value, set in 2005, was 5.57 million square kilometers (2.15 million square miles).

The 2008 season strongly reinforces the thirty-year downward trend in Arctic ice extent. The 2008 September low was 34% below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000 and only 9% greater than the 2007 record (Figure 2). Because the 2008 low was so far below the September average, the negative trend in September extent has been pulled downward, from –10.7 % per decade to –11.7 % per decade (Figure 3).

NSIDC Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, “When you look at the sharp decline that we’ve seen over the past thirty years, a ‘recovery’ from lowest to second lowest is no recovery at all. Both within and beyond the Arctic, the implications of the decline are enormous.”


 

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Get in early for a breakthrough in AGW Denial

program

last updated: October 13, 2008

Where and When

The 2009 International Conference on Climate Change will take place in New York City on March 8-10, 2009 (Sunday - Tuesday), at the Marriott New York Marquis Times Square Hotel, 1535 Broadway, New York, NY.

There will be four tracks of panel discussions:

1. Paleoclimatology
2. Climatology
3. Impact of Climate Change
4. Economics and Politics

Or maybe no breakthrough next year. Maybe just the same tired old speakers with the same tired old self-contradictory, cherry-picking arguements...

Confirmed Speakers

NameAffiliation
Dennis AveryHudson Institute
Joseph BastThe Heartland Institute
Robert BradleyInstitute for Energy Research
Bob CarterJames Cook University (Australia)
Frank ClementePenn State University
John ColemanKUSI-TV - San Diego
Joseph D'AleoInternational Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project
David DouglassUniversity of Rochester
Myron EbellCompetitive Enterprise Institute
Michelle FossUniversity of Texas - Center for Energy Economics
Fred GoldbergRoyal School of Technology (Sweden)
Laurence GouldUniversity of Hartford
William GrayColorado State University
Chris HornerCompetitive Enterprise Institute
Craig IdsoCenter for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
David LegatesUniversity of Delaware
Jay LehrThe Heartland Institute
Marlo LewisCompetitive Enterprise Institute
Richard LindzenMassachusetts Institute of Technology
Ross McKitrickUniversity of Guelph
Christopher MoncktonScience and Public Policy Institute
Jim O'BrienFlorida State University
Tim PattersonCarleton University
Benny PeiserLiverpool John Moores University (United Kingdom)
Paul ReiterInstitut Pasteur (France)
Arthur RobinsonOregon Institute of Science and Medicine
Joel SchwartzAmerican Enterprise Institute
S. Fred SingerScience and Environmental Policy Project
Fred SmithCompetitive Enterprise Institute
Willie SoonScience and Public Policy Project
Roy SpencerUniversity of Alabama at Huntsville
James M. TaylorThe Heartland Institute
Anthony WattsSurfacestations.org

 

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Desmogblog on election climate politics

Australia had it's green election ten months ago, and the new government signed the Kyoto Protocol as their first act . They transformed us from pariah to trier in one stroke, and today we had the Garnaut report released, recommending 10% emissions reductions by 2020, or 25% in the event of a workable international consensus at Copenhagen.

So that's one of the big three per-capita emitters on the right path. Good luck, Canada, and the US
clipped from www.desmogblog.com

New DeSmog Site Clears Election Pollution


29 Sep 08

Go to Elections.Desmogblog.com for News and Analysis

Election fever has captured the U.S. and Canada simultaneously and the outcome of these two contests may affect the future of humankind more critically than any previous elections in this history of either country.

Given the recent (i.e. George Bush-induced) climate policy in the United States, U.S. voters are choosing between one candidate (John McCain) who is better than the last guy and one who may actually show leadership on this, the most important environmental issue in human history.

The situation is more clear cut - if more dire - in Canada.
Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has made it clear that his most important constituents are the people who want unfettered rights to develop the tar sands - environmental consequences be damned.
Elections.DesmogBlog.com will help you analyse the position of all the leading candidates.
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Sunday, September 28, 2008

Oreskes outs Nierenberg

Story so far: Ronald Regan does not like the first three climate science reports provided by the government's elite scientific advisory group, the Jasons. But he like the fourth. It was synthesised by Bill Nierenberg, a Jason who had worked on the Manhattan project.

So bringing us into the now, to history in the making, is Naomi Oreskes, of 'consensus' fame as she dissects how Bill Nierenberg synthesised his 1983 report to give civilisation the first tenets of US government climate change denial:

From Chicken Little to Dr. Pangloss: William Nierenberg, Global Warming, and the Social Deconstruction of Scientific Knowledge
Oreskes, Conway, Shindell.


Atmoz has been following the thread, as has Eli Rabett.

Life's Good and Do No Evil to power low-carbon grid

clipped from www.worldwatch.org
The recently announced alliance between technology giants General Electric and Google may provide the lobbying arsenal necessary for the U.S. to overhaul an outdated electric grid widely considered as a barricade to a low-carbon future.


The collaboration brings together two industry leaders with significant investments in U.S. renewable energy. Their focus on electricity infrastructure may stimulate improvements in transmission efficiency and utility access to clean energy sources, industry observers said.


The companies' early messages indicate support for more national leadership. "The current regulatory and economic model is failing to drive the innovation and investment we need in today's electric grid," a joint statement said [PDF]. "We will work to overcome regulatory and institutional barriers, and advocate for appropriate incentives."

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Woah there Putin, woah, easy boy


Michael Tobias explores Sarah Palin's ability to portray foreign leaders in animal terms, and her appreciation of geography.

Palin:"it's very important when you consider even national security issueswith Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of theUnited States of America, where, where do they go? It's Alaska. It'sjust right over the border."

...

Tobias: But if Putin were to actually visit Washington DC or the UN in NewYork, he would pass near or over Iceland and then enter US airspace inNew England, no doubt rearing his head menacingly all the while.

I guess never having had a passport means you are not really the type to pour over air corridor maps in your free-time. Or even appreciate where your country's main airports are. Didn't America just re-elect a President who had never or hardly been out of the country before? And look at the mess he made.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Summer will be an erratic El Nino and La Nina sandwich

clipped from www.smh.com.au

After the coldest winter in a decade, weather experts are warning Sydney to expect an erratic summer.

Veteran weatherman and director of Weatherwatch Don White said people should expect the mercury to soar and sink this year, with temperatures in the Pacific Ocean indicating that the region is in a flux between El Nino and La Nina events.

"We should be looking for the above average temperatures
[throughout spring and summer] but that might include some quite
hot spells and some quite cold spells," he said.

Sydney is expecting a warmer than usual spring, with temperatures again expecting to break 30 degrees by the weekend.

Bureau of Meteorology climate officer Mike de Salis said the mercury plunged most in August.

The average maximum temperature was 17.3 degrees, more than half a degree lower than the average and the coldest monthly average since 1989.

The average maximum temperature throughout the three winter months was the lowest since 1998.

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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Global warming — bad guys found at last

The science on global warming is so clear that it's hard to understand why the public doesn't push the politicians to pass the laws necessary for our preservation.

But, as a species we do not respond to changes on a geological time-scale, even those as rapid as our anthropocene. We can intellectualise the threat of climate change, but it takes a visceral threat, say - a bushfire, to move us into survival mode.

We can be moved to action by moral threat, as Howard showed us when we stood firm against invading refugee fleets armed with nothing but children for projectiles. We weren't going to let them tell us how they were going to come into the country. No sir. Howard skilfully turned those poor refugees into the bad-guys by suggesting they use their children to evoke our sympathy.

The problem with climate change, in terms of generating public outrage, is that it had no 'bad guys'. There is no identifiable moral threat oil companies represent, considering...

Until now. NY Times reports:

Sex, Drug Use and Graft Cited in Interior Department

WASHINGTON — As Congress prepares to debate expansion of drilling in taxpayer-owned coastal waters, the Interior Department agency that collects oil and gas royalties has been caught up in a wide-ranging ethics scandal — including allegations of financial self-dealing, accepting gifts from energy companies, cocaine use and sexual misconduct.

In three reports delivered to Congress on Wednesday, the department’s inspector general, Earl E. Devaney, found wrongdoing by a dozen current and former employees of the Minerals Management Service, which collects about $10 billion in royalties annually and is one of the government’s largest sources of revenue other than taxes.

A culture of ethical failure” pervades the agency, Mr. Devaney wrote in a cover memo.

The reports portray a dysfunctional organization that has been riddled with conflicts of interest, unprofessional behavior and a free-for-all atmosphere for much of the Bush administration’s watch.

The highest-ranking official criticized in the reports is Lucy Q. Denett, the former associate director of minerals revenue management, who retired earlier this year as the inquiry was progressing.


Never mind the intergenerational accumulating existentialist threat to the species these folk are perpetrating, what about the sex, drugs and graft renting at the very moral fabric of our society? They are the types of people who would throw their children overboard. You just know it.

Here's a report from the Globe and Mail: Sex, drugs, oil and gas


Sarah "Shapeshifter" Palin's climate change change


From this audio of a long letter of a disgruntled Alaskan, who claims to know Sarah Palin — minus lipstick — we learn that she does not believe that man-made global warming is shrinking the habitat of polar bears. Ergo, legislation protecting their habitat — from oil extraction — should be overturned.

That's from before she was thrust into the public spotlight (and into dissonance with McCain's stance). But Desmogblog now detects a subtle shift in stance:

... show me where I've said there's absolute proof that nothing that man has ever conducted or engaged in has had any effect or no effect on climate change. I have not said that. I have said that my belief is there is a cyclical nature of our planet — warming trends, cooling trends — I'm not going to argue scientists, because I believe in science and have such a great respect for what they are telling us. I'm not going to disagree with the point that they make that man's activities can be attributed to changes."

The denial lobby are boning her up as we read this. Count on it.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Australians would dig deep to fight climate change

Good news for the government implementing an ETS. We won't stand in your way (but woe betide it turns out trust is misplaced).

A MAJOR survey of Australians' views on climate change has found an overwhelming majority think it is happening and they're prepared to pay to address it.

The study by University of Technology Sydney found Australians wanted to see cuts in the nation's greenhouse gas emissions irrespective of the actions of other countries.

The key findings include that 83.7 per cent believed global warming was occurring and, of those, 84.9 per cent said Australia should proceed with an emissions trading scheme (ETS) regardless of the international response. "The bottom line from this study is that Australians think now is the time to adopt a climate change program that has some real teeth," visiting economics professor at UTS Richard Carson said.

"They believe that climate change will cause serious problems in Australia and elsewhere in the world, and they understand there will be sizeable cost going along with it."


We want the revenue an ETS will earn, to help low-income earners cope with the changes, and middle income earners want the GST reduced. Will it be an unnecessary tax, after the cost of pollution becomes a production input?

An interesting question about the role of government arises. Is it more efficient to tax consumption, or 'externalities', that is, the social cost of pollution.

And most want 20 percent of the ETS revenue to be dedicated to climate change R&D.

Professor Carson said 58.7 per cent of participants supported spending 20 per cent of ETS revenues on R & D, in keeping with a recommendation of the Rudd Government-commissioned Garnaut Review.

"The public clearly favours spending 20 per cent of the money on R & D … even though we told them that if they did that they would redistribute less money to the public," he said.

"That shows the Australians are very forward-looking, they see it as a long-term problem and the R & D efforts will help them get over the hump."

Survey participants' views were also sought on the different government plans and opposition policies to tackle climate change.

A majority (57.1 per cent) supported the government's plan to begin emissions trading from 2010 over the Liberals' later 2012 start date.

Participants were quizzed on their political leanings and Professor Carson said Green and Labor voters were more likely to favour the government's plan.

Interestingly, more than half (53 per cent) of Liberal-aligned survey participants also favoured the earlier 2010 ETS start date instead of official policy held by the Federal Opposition.

Views were split on whether transport should be exempt for the first three years of the ETS - with just over half (50.6 per cent) for the move to temporarily delay price increases at the petrol bowser.

The study, entitled Survey on Controlling Greenhouse Gases, was conducted by the UTS Centre for the Study of Choice.

Professor Carson is a Professor of Economics at the University of California and is a Visiting Distinguished Professor at the UTS.


These figures are consistent with other surveys. If this survey gets media traction, it's the death-knell for the AGW denial industry.

Hurrican Gustav to test Obama/Biden, McCain/Palin

The damage wrought by Hurricane Katrina also ruined Bush. A point clearly not lost on all presidential candidates as they prepare to respond to the 'certain political fallout' claimed for Gustav:

Republican White House hopeful John McCain and running-mate Sarah Palin will Sunday ditch their pre-convention plans and visit people in Mississippi bracing for deadly Hurricane Gustav.

The visit comes as the fearsome category four storm's approach overshadowed the buildup to the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota on Monday, and stirred memories of the botched response to Hurricane Katrina exactly three years ago.


Katrina is still affecting the GOP.

Earlier, in an interview to be broadcast on Fox News Sunday, McCain suggested he might go as far as suspending the convention, if the storm turned into a huge human tragedy on the par with Katrina.

"It wouldn't be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a national disaster.

"So we're monitoring it from day-to-day and I'm saying a few prayers, " he said.

..

Forecasters said the storm could hit top category five force as it moved toward the US Gulf Coast for a direct hit Monday or Tuesday. In any case, "Gustav is forecast to remain a major hurricane through landfall along the northern Gulf coast," the US National Hurricane Center said.


Obama is keeping weather eye out as well.

Will the fallout involve a discussion on the US's response to combating global warming?

Mother of all storms bearing down on New Orleans

Remember Hurricane Katrina, hitting New Orleans this time to the day three years ago?

Mayor Ray Nagin hopes so, invoking her name by omission.

New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin has ordered the city emptied tomorrow in the face of "the storm of the century", warning anyone that stays behind that they are on their own.

"I am announcing today mandatory evacuation of New Orleans starting 8am Sunday (2300 Sunday AEST) on the West bank," Nagin said at a press conference. "We want everybody... we want 100 per cent evacuation. If you decide to stay, you are on your own."

"This is the mother of all storms," Nagin said. "This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day that I'm not sure we've seen anything like it."

Nagin estimated that less than half of the city's population has left despite days of dire warnings.

"This is the real deal," Nagin said. "Riding this storm out would be one of the biggest mistakes you could make in your life."

Nagin said police, fire and other emergency personnel are being pulled from the city to safer areas. A "skeleton crew" of fewer than 50 city workers will be left behind, according to officials.

Hurricane Gustav is on course to crash ashore near New Orleans. Nagin told anyone planning to stay behind to "make sure you have an axe because you will be busting your way out to get on your roof with waters surrounding you."

Gustav has left around 85 people dead in Caribbean nations.

In 2005, New Orleans was hammered by Hurricane Katrina which caused widespread flooding and left tens of thousands of people homeless.


While there is temporal symmetry with Hurricane Katrina there have been fewer hurricanes this year, or hurricane season is late.

How about those freaks who are staying?

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Google Insights for Search on al gore, global warming, climate change

Google Insights for Search (GIS) is Google's latest functionette on offer. It is fascinating, but not all it could be. More like a tease.

GIS provides a graphical output for up to five search terms. Numbers on the graph reflect how many searches have been done for a particular term, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. They don't represent absolute search volume numbers, because the data is normalized and presented on a scale from 0-100; each point on the graph is divided by the highest point, or 100.

So away I went, plugging in two terms, global warming; and climate change for parameters, worldwide, and for all recorded time (2004 - present).

Interesting graph (I also chucked in Al Gore). GIS also scales countries of the world. Here's the top ten countries sorted on global warming.

Top regions for global warming

Region al gore global warming climate change
Indonesia 19 100 25
Philippines 41 77 29
India 18 76 27
South Africa 37 69 43
Australia 47 54 80
United States 100 51 19
New Zealand 38 49 56
Singapore 36 43 29
Canada 63 42 37
Kenya 0 39 100

Still, it's a cool tool.

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