The drought is broken

Not the Australian one, the South African one — in New Zealand.

Frequent Extreme Weather Events scenario for 20 years

Federal Agriculture Minister Tony Burke has likened a scientific study into links between climate change and drought to the final chapters of a disaster novel.

We live in strange times.

Mr Burke on Sunday released a joint assessment by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, which found that what are now considered to be one in 25 year climate events could become as frequent as once every one to two years.

In particular, the study found exceptionally high temperatures would occur almost yearly, while low rainfall would almost double in frequency from current figures.

The report found about 50 per cent of the rainfall decrease in south-western Australia since the 1950s was likely due to greenhouse gases.

The reports are inputs into agricultural policy development. It's gratifying to see a Government allow science to inform policy development, at last.

"While this is a scientific report, parts of these high level projections read more like a disaster novel than a scientific report," Mr Burke told reporters.

"What's clear is that the cycle of drought is going to be more regular and deeper than ever."

Mr Burke said events of extreme temperature, which currently occurred once every 20 to 25 years, were forecast to happen once every one to two years coming up to 2030.

The area of Australia declared to be in drought would double and the likelihood of drought would also double, Mr Burke said.

"What this means is that in terms of government policy, we now know what would happen if we did nothing," he said.

"If we fail to review drought policy, if we were to continue the neglect and pretend that the climate wasn't changing we would be leaving our farmers out to dry well and truly."

The CSIRO report is the first in the federal government's three stage review of drought policy with the scientific findings to be fed into an analysis of social policy and economic review being undertaken by the Productivity Commission.

The release of the report follows the announcement for drought figures in NSW, which put 65 per cent of the state in drought, an increase of more than two per cent on last month.

Technorati Tags: global warming, climate change, drought, Australia

The clearfelled truth about Melbourne's drought

Andrew Bolt is fond of blaming Victoria's ongoing Level 3 water restrictions on the fact that they haven't built enough dams. All the greenies fault, that sort of stuff.

But The Wilderness Society have found a real culprit, and Andrew is not going to like it; the Loggers of the Water Catchment in the Central Highlands:

Logging threatens water supply and quality

Within the spectacular giant mountain ash forests of the Central Highlands lie Melbourne’s water catchments, which provide drinking water to over 3 million Victorians. Five of these catchments, which supply 40 per cent of Melbourne’s drinking water are open to clearfell logging.

Several independent studies, including a technical report published in December 2000, have found that clearing and regeneration of these forests has a dramatic effect on water yield.

Research has shown logged areas to suffer a 50 per cent reduced water yield (shown in graph). Young regrowth trees need more water to grow, thus releasing less water into river catchments. It takes 150 years for water yields to regain their pre-logged status.

It is breathtaking that in this time of severe drought our most precious resource is jeopardised by logging and that the Government continues to see fit to threaten the little water we have left.

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Hottest Australian January on record

clipped from www.ncdc.noaa.gov In Australia, temperatures were above average in January through much of the country. For the nation as a whole, it was the hottest January on record. According to reports, the January 2008 average temperature for the nation rose 1.3°C (2.3°F), while large areas in Western and Central Australia experienced temperatures 3-4°C (5-7°F) above average. The town of Pooncarie recorded its highest temperature of 44.5°C (112°F) (The Sidney [sic] Morning Herald).

Australia most global warming aware. No, really!

I've come across this before, but it still catches me by surprise — the fact that Australians are at the forefront of global warming consciousness. A September poll by World Public Opinion.org shows that, despite our fossil-fuel fixated Government's penchant for future non-binding emissions targets we, the governed, want proper action now. A whopping ninety-two percent of us.

Twelve countries were asked whether steps should be taken to address climate change and majorities in all but one of them favored action. The largest majority in favor of measures to combat global warming is found in Australia (92%).

China and Israel are the next most likely (83%) to favor such measures. Eighty percent of respondents in the United States—the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases—also support taking such measures. The lowest level of support for taking steps to address the problem is found in India, nonetheless nearly half (49%) favor taking action while just 24 percent oppose it (26% do not answer).

In no country (out of 12 asked) does more than one in four endorse the statement, “Until we are sure that global warming is really a problem, we should not take any steps that would have economic costs.” The countries where the highest percentages favor delaying any action are India (24%), Russia (22%) and Armenia (19%). The countries with the lowest are Argentina (3%), and Thailand (7%).

How is it that we ended up so ahead of the curve for climate change, despite the long-standing counter-efforts of our Kyoto Protocol combatant of a Federal Government?

It's tempting to go for the low-hanging fruit and put it down to an outdoor lifestyle that allows us to connect with nature, or some other self-congratulatory nod to some aspect of Aussiedom. But I think it has more to do with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation inspired drought we endured. It impacted the countryside the worst, but even the comfortable suburbs of all major cities copped it in the daily image stream of cracked earth and farmers kicking the dirt. Soon the seriousness was driven home by domestic water-restrictions as local dam levels dropped alarmingly.

We responded. The masses let it mellow if it were yellow,and the immediate reaction of the wealthy was to ward-off zealous water-inspectors with signs indicating a bore had been sunk for garden irrigation. In time the water-inspectors appeared less Orwellian and somehow fitted in with the spate of suburban gardens that abandoned their thirsty, mother-country heritage to go native. Grey water was redirected over lawns, and Australia showered with a bucket to catch the cumulative waste. While the water drummed down on this latest symbol of a changed world, the plastic bucket, and we stared at the unhelpful dribbling from the water-efficient shower heads, our entire citizenry had daily opportunities to consider how things got to this stage. That's perhaps how ninety two percent of us decided that we are living through global warming induced climate change. A newly enlightened media, and Al Gore's phenomenally successful An Inconvenient Truth only confirmed our suspicions.

Giving this theory weight is that we did save a lot of domestic water. In Sydney I remember being down 25 percent on the previous year's consumption atone stage. The year-to-year worsening of the bush fire seasons also helped — another dramatic, big ticket item for the evening news that is easily linked to global warming.

In summary, I believe that a reason for our high awareness, is because our continent is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change. And it's only going to get worse. So close to the election there is no way John Howard's latest ploys to delay emissions targes are going to fly— in this climate.

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Extreme weather: Global warming or El Niño-La Niña baton change?

After Australia's hottest autumn on record and the coldest June since 1950, the SMH asks Dr David Jones from the Bureau of Meteorology why there has been extreme weather.(01:38)

Global Warning Climate Change Energy

The drought, and beauty, stricken Murray-Darling

About six weeks ago the Prime Minister of Australia announced that the agricultural communities' water allocations within the 'breadbasket of Australia', the Murray-Darling basin, would needed to be 'turned-off' if drought-relieving rains did not fall in time.

That time is about now. So how is the Murray-Darling basin currently holding up? Please do enjoy this stunning photo-essay by Ben Rushton for the SMH. While it captures the effects of the longest, and deepest, drought on the area that gives Australia it's food security, plus a handsome export dollar or two, there is no avoiding the utter, utter beauty of the region... regardless of the state of it's rivers.

global warning climate change drought australia

Low flow for $10 billion Murray-Darling river rescue

'twas a plan hatched on back of the envelope that crossed no squinting Treasury eyes, so why shouldn't the States look askance at the Federal Government's Murray-Darling River offer? Today's water allocation is tomorrow's pork barrel, if yesterday is any guide.

clipped from www.smh.com.au The Federal Government will alter aspects of its $10 billion Murray-Darling Basin rescue plan after more states today joined Victoria in expressing concern about the proposal. Victoria remained steadfast in its rejection of the plan after a meeting of water ministers from basin states and the Federal Government in Adelaide today. South Australia and Queensland, while remaining supportive of the federal plan, voiced concern at aspects to rejuvenate the ailing basin. Federal Water Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Canberra was willing to tinker with the plan's legislation. "We are seeking input and we are making changes to the legislation all the time," Mr Turnbull said. "We recognise that we are not the sole repository of wisdom on water, nobody is. "We all benefit from input from others and we are seeking that input, receiving it, and where there is a consensus that it can make an improvement, we are applying it." Global Warning Climate Change

Aboriginal weathermen say drought breaking soon

There is so much we can learn about surviving this vast, dry, continent from the Aboriginal people, especially now that the climate has taken a turn for the worse.

For example, I understand that in the north they have two seasons, and up to seven distinct seasons as you travel south. Makes sense if you have experienced both locales for at least a year or so, and it brings home the awkwardness of imposing our four-seasons template we imported from Europe - that it is not really appropriate. To Aboriginal tribes in the Sydney region, for instance, September and October are known as Murrai'yunggoray, the time when the red waratah flower blooms.

It is followed by Goraymurrai, a period of warm, wet weather during which Aborigines would not camp near rivers for fear of flooding.

Strong message: In the Sydney region, Aborigines recognize the beginning of the Murrai’yunggoray season in September and October by the red blooms of the waratah flowers. Patrick Riviere/Getty Images

Anyway, the good news about the drought, according to Djabwurrung, Jeremy Clark, chief executive of the Brambuk Aboriginal Cultural Centre in the Grampian Mountains of Victoria State, who knows something about this stuff, is that it will soon be broken. Something to do with when cockatoos were flocking and the wattle bushes were flowering. A few good months of rain are predicted. The BoM, with their satellites and synoptic charts, can only give us a fifty-fifty chance, and John Howard, well he can only give us a prayer.

clipped from www.csmonitor.com For a warmer future, Australia employs Aboriginal wisdom Faced with its worst drought in history, meteorologists are plumbing the Aborigines' 40,000 years of lore. Australia faces climate change's worst drought. These days, Australians need all the help they can get. Last month, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said the country faced an "unprecedentedly dangerous" drought. But Australia isn't the only nation to recognize indigenous meteorological knowledge. Experts studying the effects of global warming in the Arctic are looking to Inuit expertise, and South American Indians' knowledge of weather patterns, such as El Niño, has long been recognized. "The Indians knew that when the ocean was warm they'd get rain from El Niño, so they'd plant potatoes," says Dr. Stern. "When it was cold, there'd be no rain, but the anchovies would be plentiful, so they'd feed on fish." In the years to come, the Bureau of Meteorology hopes to recruit more Aboriginal communities to the project.

Aboriginal wea ther forecasting is claimed to be 90% accurate by adherents. They take note of subtle changes to plants and animals get clues about the weather. "It's about reading the landscape and the environment through the activities of plants and animals," says Mr. Clark.

For example, in the Simpson Desert of central Australia, the appearance of wading birds called plovers is associated with the onset of seasonal rains.

In the humid north of the Northern Territory, the arrival of the brolga crane was traditionally seen as heralding the beginning of the monsoon season. The flowering of rough-barked gum trees indicates that winds will blow from the southeast, bringing in the dry season.

I googled up an Sydney based Aboriginal calendar: :::[Weather cycles around Sydney from the Bodkin/Andrews clan of the D'harawal People]

It's way cool.

Today, it's the 11th May, or the third last week of Bana'Murray'Yung when Lillipilli (Syzygium spp) fruit ripens. A time when it's wet, and getting colder; traditionally the time to make cloaks and journey to the coast.

More specifically, it's Marrai'gang, when the tiger quoll seeks her mate.

During the breeding season, the male Tiger Quolls emit a slow, deep growl and a loud, explosive spitting sound (like that of a cat, but enormously magnified). The female's call is not quite as loud. These nocturnal calls may have given quolls their fearsome 'tiger' reputation. They don't look so fearsome all curled up during the day. Sadly, they are a threatened species having to survive habitat fragmentation, predation on the young by introduced foxes and feral (and domestic) cats, fire, and accidental poisoning by 1080 baiting programs to control fox and wild dog populations. When 1080 baits are used, best practice management guidelines are encouraged in order to keep impacts to native species to a minimum.

Googling more information on the Sydney Aboriginal calendar reveals that in addition to the six annual seasons is an 11-year cycle which determines what the seasons will be like... all this in an eight phase cycle! I came across this report from February 15th, 2003. :::[Now for the 4000-year forecast]

To Frances Bodkin, a traditional D'harawal Aboriginal descendant, the massive flowering of the Sydney green wattle 18 months ago was a terrible meteorological warning.

According to the calendar of her ancestors, it signalled a meeting between the climate cycle Gadalung marool and the season Gadalung burara, bringing the harsh weather we are now experiencing.

Ms Bodkin, a botanical author, teacher and traditional storyteller at Mount Annan Botanic Gardens, is one of the last people in the Sydney region who inherited tens of thousands of years of weather wisdom.

[...]

In Sydney, says Ms Bodkin, there are eight phases to the 11-year cycle. They do not last for set periods but are based on subtle changes in the environment, invisible to all but the most observant.

Gadalung burara is the hottest and driest part of the cycle and is indicated by a massive blooming of Acacia decurrens. Also, gums begin to lose their leaves.

When Gadalung burara coincides with January and February - traditionally known as Gadalung marool - there will be "real trouble", Ms Bodkin says.

Unless her ancestors began burning as soon as the wattles flowered they risked fires getting into the tree crowns.

I live in Sydney; this is an awakening for me. Imagine how many us in NSW, from politicians to fire-fighters to property owners, would have liked to have known to look out for Gadalung burara coinciding with Gadalung marool?

More googling confirms that January 2003 was when Canberra had it's terrible bushfires causing insurance losses of $250 million with 2,500 individual claims. :::[Canberra burns]




How lucky are we to now have people like Frances Bodkin share their knowledge, and that of their ancestors? Here is more information. And if you have got this far, you are as hooked as me, so you can't go past the Bureau of Meteorology Indigenous Weather website.

Latest global warming first: Climate Wars

We've already had the world's first climate refugees, are we having the world's first climate war in Sudan? Will climate change soon cause the world's first western agricultural collapse, in Australia, if the rains don't fall this month?

clipped from www.climateark.org All of the predicted catastrophic consequences of climate change are happening already, though not yet ramped up to their full potential for death and destruction. We are already witnessing the world's first climate change war in Darfur, Sudan [more | more2]; and the first continental scale emergency in Australia's "big dry" drought. It has been suggested that the real root of the Darfur conflict is ferocious drought and famine that since mid-1980s transformed Sudan and the whole Horn of Africa "Those who were prepared to kill, rape and pillage were drawn from the ranks of the desperate, ripped from their traditional way of life by a catastrophic change in the weather.. there is the very real prospect it [climate change] will lead to more conflicts like Darfur

Global Warning Climate Change

Howard prays drought not linked to global warming

Looks like I am not the only one to think that the Australian Prime Minister's threat to cut off water to our farmers unless heavy rains fall soon, is strange, or strangely timed, or political. :::[SMH: Letters to the Editor]

Rain is not the only thing in this Government's prayers

Gotta love it. After 10-plus years of squandering the nation's natural resources, refusing to invest in alternative energy and squandering finances by taking us into an illegal war in a faraway place that is no threat to Australia's security on nothing but lies and by deception, and with the wells running dry, John Howard and his incompetents tell us all to pray for rain.

Forget God save the Queen. How about God save Australia - from this Government?

S. Cavli Como West

The Howard Government's involvement in the fate of the Murray-Darling river systems over the past 10 years matches its involvement and policy on climate change. It stands back and allows every last cent to be dragged out of the environment until the damage is done, then it thinks about a plan.

The state of the rivers offers a preview of what will happen in the wider environment if the Government continues to put profits before sustainability.

M. Pearce Richmond

When John Howard was asked if he showers with a bucket, he thought that was "a bit extreme", but he does not blink cutting off access to the Murray-Darling to our food producers.

Come on, John, we want to see you tipping the morning bucket on the garden like the rest of us, not striding out in your trackies with a bevy of minders. Think global, act local.

Melissa Ward Bilambil Heights

While not doubting the power of prayer, is it the best option for a government's water policy?

John Cook Chatswood

Pray? After years of ignoring climate change experts, the looming economic train crash has galvanised John Howard into action.

And, at this 11th hour, the power of prayer is all he can come up with. Not good enough, I'm afraid.

C. Northcott Oatley

Before the last federal election we were being "alarmed" about terrorism. A few months from the next election, we are being "alarmed" about water shortages and the effect on the economy.

I am truly alarmed about how a government in office for more than a decade has allowed the situation to reach such critical proportions.

L. Francis Jannali

Consulted the tea leaves and chicken entrails this morning and they indicate praying for rain will have exactly the same effect as Costello praying to be handed the prime ministership.

Rog Cooper Boambee East

With water so scarce, it is time to choose. I'd rather eat fruit and veggies than cotton.

Gillian Scoular Annandale

The answer to the water shortage may well be the election of Kevin Rudd.

Weeks after Bob Hawke's election in 1983, the rains came and a drought was broken. Surely, a case of rainfall rates always being higher under Labor.

David Bolton Loftus

By week's end, we were reduced to prayer - for rain to save the Murray-Darling. But even the most devout thought the Prime Minister's prayer plan was unlikely to effectively restore our once great river system. As Geoffrey Cowling wrote: "Why does John Howard think God would answer the prayers of a man who will not even sign the Kyoto accord?"

Jennie Curtin, letters editor

Other reports:

The Sydney Morning Herald headlines with the threat to wetlands. :::[Drain wetlands to save towns]

EIGHT wetlands face being drained to free up water along the Murray-Darling as John Howard warns that Australia may have to import more food to cope with the historic drying of the basin.

The same paper editorialises that the link between global warming is not definitive, and somehow presents Rudd as the opportunist, rather unfairly, I thought. :::[Looking to the heavens for an answer to the drought]

While there may yet be proof of a link between global warming and the drought, Mr Howard is entitled to be sceptical. After all, Australia had droughts - long droughts, extreme droughts - well before talk of climate change.

Whatever the facts, the problem for Mr Howard is that drought and climate change have become messily entangled in the public mind. It is a perilous confusion for the Government in an election year - a confusion Labor will happily encourage. The Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd, has taken out time from lecturing the Americans about the Chinese to say that while Mr Howard could not make it rain, of course he should have done more about climate change. Such politicking may leave Mr Rudd looking not merely petty but irrelevant as the full ramifications of the drought become clear.

And here it the controversial report itself. :::[Murray-Darling Basin Report]

Global Warning Climate Change Drought Australia

PM voices dustbowl fears for Australia's breadbasket

To my mind it is the biggest news in Australia this century, if fair dinkum. Maybe even since Federation in 1901.

Prime Minister John Howard appeared on television today and threatened to cut off water supplies to the farmers of the Murray-Darling basin, if there are isn't heavy rainfall in the coming months. :::[Video: SMH]

If you are not familiar with the geography - the Murray Darling Basin is the food basket of Australia, and many other parts of the world that we export to. The immediate upshot of denying these farmers their water allocations is that this would radically increase prices for many food products. The longer term effect is that the many types of crops, citrus, stone fruit and the like, that take up to five years to become established, will die. So will a lot of farming enterprises.

I am completely taken by surprise. Gob-smacked. Yes I know there is a tough drought happening, and that it had been exacerbated up until last month by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Yes I know global warming is very gradually taking its toll, slowly changing the climate in southern Australia to a drier one.

But this announcement has me disturbed.

It still seems so out of the blue. It's also not one that you would imagine a Prime Minister would be happy to make in an election year - why wouldn't a canny man like Howard leave it to his Minister for Environment and Water Resources, Malcolm Turnbull, to take to the podium alone? As I write I am almost starting to hope that this just might be typical Howardian politics, rather than drastic reality. Howard is desperately trying to get the Victorian Premier, Steve Bracks to be part of his $10 billion water initiative; Could he be trying to scare Bracks into signing over his state's water powers to the Federal Government?

Interestingly, the biggest farmers are not panicking. They say they need Mr Howard to clarify what he means before they worry. :::[SMH: Water ban threat questioned]

The owner of one of Australia's 10 largest stone fruit farms is nonplussed by Prime Minister John Howard's declaration that no water will be allocated to irrigators in the Murray-Darling Basin for the coming year unless there is substantial rain in the next six weeks.

John Corboy, of Corboy Fresh Fruits, which operates 400 hectares near Shepparton in Victoria, said he would need more information on what Mr Howard means by "very substantial" inflows into the Murray-Darling Basin before he paid attention to it.

Mr Howard did not specify how much rain would be needed by the end of May to make irrigation allocations a possibility.

Here is what Howard said:

"Unless there are very substantial inflows - and for that read heavy rain leading to run-off into the catchment areas - prior to mid-May 2007, there will be insufficient water available to allow any allocation at the commencement of the 2007-08 water year for irrigation, the environment or for any purposes other than critical urban supplies."

And what Corboy said in response when asked:

"It's not enough to really comment on, other than, 'Hang on mate, you're flying off the handle here and you're being fairly emphatic when there's so many unknowns.' "

"Realistically we're out of the el nino effect and the indicators are showing us that clearly, the oceans temperatures have come back to normal. The pundits are telling us within our area that we have 50 per cent chance of having higher than average rainfall [this season]."

"People tend to be getting into the view that it's just never going to rain again, well that's not the case, it will, we just don't when. And there's only one bloke who knows when it will, and he's not giving interviews."

I think I'll go with the man on the land this time. The manner in which the announcement was made seemed a touch incongruent for the gravitas of the situation - if it was for real. In addition, when one journalist queried whether the drought was linked to climate change, Howard was completely emphatic in saying that it was not.

How can anyone be so sure?

Global Warning Climate Change Drought Australia