Glasses charged for Copenhagen

I don't like admitting it because I'm a glass-half-full guy, but, right now, the political climate change world is wobbling some.

In Australia, we have a Government that is finally negotiating Carbon Pollution Reductions Scheme bill amendments with an opposition determined to destroy itself for their claque of Carbon Pollution Freedom Scheme lobbyists, in an agonisingly slow-mo train crash over climate change.

Because of aforesaid recalcitrants and a Government determined to win the politics of climate change, but not take the real leadership science says is needed, and because we export 80% of the world's coal, the worst of it is that the best we can hope for.

The high side of Government's proposed 5 to 25% targets (depending on what the rest of the world signs up to at Copenhagen) are on the low side of what climate models tell us are necessary if we are going to control warming by 2C, where a 25% to 40... 60, some say 80% reduction in co2e emissions from 1990 levels is counselled.

On the bright side, politically we are many miles down the road from where we were eighteen month ago, although popular concern about climate change is dropping priority as the economy bites. This, and a concerted campaign by sceptics who, no doubt have had some wins, as well as a sense that, 'well since the Government is doing something we can worry less', all contribute to this drop in priority, I believe.

Will the Government hold the line on what is a weak commitment anyway, or will they give the polluters bigger exemptions to avoid a double dissolution election? The point of the CPRS is that there has to be pain for some.

In the US, Obama's election turned the US from climate change bad guy, to most important player in creating a post Kyoto world. An amazing transformation that even got China making some very positive noises about fighting climate change. And then,... nothing. Obamania ended, leaving the US hung-over, the GFC bit, and Obama's political capital started getting chewed up in health-care reform. What kind of country gets itself torn up over basic universal health-care? Unchecked climate change is going to be so much more expensive, people.

Here's how Jim Hoggan sees it on Desmog blog:

A new poll released by the Pew Research Center has found the number of Americans who believe that pollution is causing climate change declined 20 percent over the past two years. Only 57% of Americans believe there is solid scientific evidence that the global climate is warming.

Some pin this decline on the economy, arguing that Americans have other things to worry about and climate change has drifted off their radar screen.

He goes on to point the finger at the dark influence of Big Denial, all explained in his new book, Climate Cover Up — The Crusade to Deny Global Warming.

It remains to be seen whether the political climate change world is in a death wobble, or we recover our sense of purpose, and straighten up in time for Copenhagen.

You'll forgive me now, if I finish this half-full glass. Then drink another.

Global Warning Climate Change Energy

US Emissions Talks With China Hit Great Wall

Five months ahead of the Copenhagen talks, a round of climate talks between the world's two biggest polluters has stalled, reports the Financial Times:

Chinese officials maintained that the two countries should have a “common but differentiated approach” – code for Beijing’s reluctance to adopt a formal domestic mandate to reduce its carbon emissions. The US Congress is considering a bill that would reduce US emissions to 83 per cent of 2005 levels by 2020. China wants the US to cut its emissions to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 – a different order of magnitude. It also wants the US to pledge up to 1 per cent of its gross domestic product to pay for clean technology in China and elsewhere.

“It is going to be really tough to get the Chinese to make significant concessions by Copenhagen,” said Bruce Braine, a board member of the International Emissions Trading Association. “There seems to be a lack of realism in ... the developing world about what the US can achieve at home.”

It can be argued that there seems to be a lack of realism in the developed world about who has emitted most of the greenhouse gasses that have created the global warming we have consequently experienced to date. Nevertheless, the US and China are in this together, as we all are. The more united we are, the better off we will be; just as, the sooner we move, the better off we will be.

Global Warning Climate Change Energy

Bali agreement on a 2009 climate pact

Bloody hell, how hard is it for the US to accept the science? What an other-world reality they have about global warming. Complete denial is head-shaking stuff, but, hey, we were there not a month ago living under John Howard's special brand of 25 stations, nuclear-powered delusion.

Reality bumped Howard out of the way, and put Kyoto Kevin on the winner's dais.

And reality is crudely bumping a recalcitrant, intransigent US along in the direction that the progressive front-runners are heading in.

Overall it's better than I expected, but less than I hoped for. And I am pleased that the Washington wrecking crew did not manage to spoil further.

My prediction is that come the start of the 2009 climate pact meeting the first black, female, or climate-friendly, white, male Republican US President will receive the same rousing standing-ovation that greeted Kevin Rudd when he set in train the Kyoto Protocol ratification.

It is highly symbolic that he chose Kyoto ratification for his first act as Australian Prime Minister. Rudd has set a precedent; he has set-up a stage for a correctly thinking, new US President to step onto and send a powerful signal of, not just an engagement with the rest of the world on climate change solutions, but a highly symbolic collaborative re-engagement. It would improve their global image problem, overnight. As it has Australia's under Rudd's ratification.

clipped from news.smh.com.au Bali talks set 2009 for new climate pact A drama-filled 190-nation conference set a 2009 deadline for a landmark pact to fight global warming after an isolated United States backed down on last-ditch objections. The United States, the only major industrial nation to reject Kyoto, reached a compromise with the European Union (EU) to avoid mentioning any figures as a target for slashing greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement instead only makes an indirect reference to scientists' warnings that the world must sharply cut back emissions to prevent a rise in temperatures that would put millions of people at risk. But on an unscheduled 13th day of talks, the United States said it would not accept the statement as it wanted developing countries such as fast-growing China to make tougher commitments. Senior US negotiator Paula Dobriansky said she had heard "many strong statements from many major developing country leaders on a greater role in helping to address urgently this global problem". It "doesn't seem it's going to be reflected in our outcome here in the declaration," she said, telling the conference that the United States would reject the draft. Dobriansky was loudly booed by other delegations. A US environmental activist representing Papua New Guinea said on the floor to rousing cheers: "If you're not willing to lead, please get out of the way." After repeated verbal lashings, Dobriansky again took the microphone and said that Washington would "go forward and join consensus," to the cheers of the conference. Indian Science Minister Kapil Sibal, who had been vocally critical of the US position, offered his thanks to the United States for not blocking the consensus. "We believe that they too are as equally committed as the rest of the world to combat climate change. So thank you very much to the delegation of the United States for coming on board," Sibal said. The agreement came only after the head of the United Nations jetted in, the UN climate chief nearly broke down in tears and chairman Indonesia apologised abjectly for a disastrous procedural mix-up. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon flew in to make an unscheduled last-minute appeal for a deal. "Seize the moment, this moment, for the good of all humanity," Ban pleaded. "The world is watching," said Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. "The worst thing that can happen is for our great project, for the human race and our planet Earth to crumble because we cannot find the right wording."

Australia's nuclear power created in Kirribilli

I hear John Howard will sign us up with the US in a nuclear pact. I haven't followed it, as I haven't followed any of his stunts since he jumped the shark, oh, so many stunts ago, so I am not really qualified to comment. But this does dovetail in with his ambition to make us radioactive green — the network of 25 nuclear power stations, the Switkowsky report — and his obsequious modus operandi when dealing with anything Bush. I don't have to expend too much mental energy to join the dots, especially now that his wife, Janette, has spilt the beans on his compulsive lying (I bet you she's sleeping on the couch at the moment).

Before he does sign, I hope he click this link by The Antidote. It is a catalogue of currents mishaps and disasters from nuclear installations around the globe. Would he have one in Kirribilli? Well — would he have had one if he had his time over again?

:::[The Antidote: So you like nuclear power...?!]

Global Warning Climate Change Energy

Climate science dicked by Dead-Eye Cheney

From Rolling Stone -- The Secret Campaign of President Bush's Administration To Deny Global Warming.

clipped from www.rollingstone.com It is no secret that industry-connected appointees within the White House have worked actively to distort the findings of federal climate scientists, playing down the threat of climate change. But a new investigation by Rolling Stone reveals that those distortions were sanctioned at the highest levels of our government, in a policy formulated by the vice president, implemented by the White House Council on Environmental Quality and enforced by none other than Karl Rove. An examination of thousands of pages of internal documents that the White House has been forced to relinquish under the Freedom of Information Act - as well as interviews with more than a dozen current and former administration scientists and climate-policy officials - confirms that the White House has implemented an industry-formulated disinformation campaign designed to actively mislead the American public on global warming and to forestall limits on climate polluters.

This Earth Day in America

A Washington Post, ABC News and Stanford University poll reveals:

- a third of Americans now say that global warming is the world's single largest environmental problem, double the number of a year ago.

- seven in 10 Americans want more federal action on global warming, and half said that believe the government should do much more than it is now.

- fifty two percent said the issue is "extremely" or "very" important personally, double the percentage recorded a decade ago.

How is this playing out in the lead-up to the presidential elections?

clipped from newsblogs.chicagotribune.com Change can be measured in the way the presidential candidates are practically falling all over themselves to come up with new proposals. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) announced a new initiative on Friday to establish a national low-carbon fuel standard based on a California proposal. By 2020, Obama would require that all transportation fuels sold in the U.S. contain 10 percent less carbon. In a new idea, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign announced it would go "carbon neutral" beginning today, meaning it would offset electricity generated with fossil fuel with purchases of "clean energy" electricity (such as wind). Republican Sen. John McCain has long been one of the leaders in Congress in pushing for a ceiling on carbon-dioxide emissions and a trading system where clean-energy credits can be bought and sold. Other GOP candidates are jumping on that bandwagon, as Obama and Clinton already have, along with other Democrats.

Global Warning Climate Change Politics