Man-made global warming predicted in 1896

Global warming awareness has now seeped into mainstream culture, but have you ever wondered who the first person to predict anthropogenic global warming was?

It was a lot longer back than you would imagine.

Svante August Arrhenius (February 19, 1859 – October 2, 1927) was a Swedish chemist and one of the founders of the science of physical chemistry. The Arrhenius equation and the lunar crater Arrhenius are named after him.

In 1908 Arrhenius predicted that significant global warming would take ~3000 years to develop. This is now recognised as a substantial underestimate due in part to his failure to foresee the rapid increases in fossil fuel use during the twentieth century.

clipped from www.globalwarmingart.com The PDF link contains "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" by Svante Arrhenius. This paper, published in 1896, is the first to quantify the impact of carbon dioxide on the Earth's greenhouse effect and to suggest that its variations have been an important influence on previous long-term changes in climate. His crude estimate that a doubling of carbon dioxide would result in a ~5 °C warming is larger but not greatly different from the 1.5-4.5 °C now estimated for such a doubling (IPCC 2001). Image of Svante Arrhenius Combining these calculations with existing work suggesting that the burning of fossil fuels could significantly alter the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Högbom 1894), Arrhenius later became the first person to predict the possibility of man-made global warming.

America's $1 trillion carbon market twelve years away

clipped from environment.newscientist.com The new US president will most likely see in the emergence of a colossal carbon trading market, worth $1 trillion a year by 2020, according to a report released on Thursday. Another report, also out this week, estimates the US could be trading $600 billion in pollution credits annually by 2015. Either way, "it will be the largest environmental market of its kind," says Tiffany McCormick Potter, senior analyst for Point Carbon, which produced the 2015 estimate. According to Point Carbon, the European carbon trading scheme totalled $42 billion in 2007. The 2020 estimate comes from New Energy Finance, another financial analysis firm which focuses on environmental markets. Both firms have this week published independent reports on the future of carbon trading in the US.

North Atlantic current could be slowing naturally

clipped from environment.newscientist.com Global warming may not have caused sluggish Atlantic Judging the effect of climate change on ocean currents could take longer than we thought. The circulation of warm water in the North Atlantic is suspected to be slowing, and the worry is that global warming is to blame. To investigate this, Carl Wunsch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology used observations taken from buoys to build a model of Atlantic circulation. It suggested that currents could speed up or slow down naturally by a greater amount than the suspected slowdown linked to global warming, and such changes could persist over months or even years (Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo126). It will take decades of observations to account for these effects, Wunsch warns.

The clearfelled truth about Melbourne's drought

Andrew Bolt is fond of blaming Victoria's ongoing Level 3 water restrictions on the fact that they haven't built enough dams. All the greenies fault, that sort of stuff.

But The Wilderness Society have found a real culprit, and Andrew is not going to like it; the Loggers of the Water Catchment in the Central Highlands:

Logging threatens water supply and quality

Within the spectacular giant mountain ash forests of the Central Highlands lie Melbourne’s water catchments, which provide drinking water to over 3 million Victorians. Five of these catchments, which supply 40 per cent of Melbourne’s drinking water are open to clearfell logging.

Several independent studies, including a technical report published in December 2000, have found that clearing and regeneration of these forests has a dramatic effect on water yield.

Research has shown logged areas to suffer a 50 per cent reduced water yield (shown in graph). Young regrowth trees need more water to grow, thus releasing less water into river catchments. It takes 150 years for water yields to regain their pre-logged status.

It is breathtaking that in this time of severe drought our most precious resource is jeopardised by logging and that the Government continues to see fit to threaten the little water we have left.

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Hottest Australian January on record

clipped from www.ncdc.noaa.gov In Australia, temperatures were above average in January through much of the country. For the nation as a whole, it was the hottest January on record. According to reports, the January 2008 average temperature for the nation rose 1.3°C (2.3°F), while large areas in Western and Central Australia experienced temperatures 3-4°C (5-7°F) above average. The town of Pooncarie recorded its highest temperature of 44.5°C (112°F) (The Sidney [sic] Morning Herald).

Have green baggage, will travel

Click the link for a salient analysis of the impact of a green-tax on budget travellers.

clipped from www.smh.com.au Have green baggage, will travel Higher fares to offset the damage planes do to the environment are unlikely to put us off budget travel, writes Julian Lee. In a previous life, I was a terrible sinner. When my wife and I lived in London, it didn't take much to persuade us to pack our bags, jump onto one of the many budget airline websites and book a flight to just about anywhere we wanted to go. We didn't need an excuse. The newspapers were full of offers shouting out fares of £10 return to places I had never heard of. Carcassonne, Lodz and Posen were just waiting to be discovered. It didn't seem to matter that I had never expressed a desire to visit any of these places before. Now, with the help of the boom in cheap flights, we could be anywhere by late Friday night, enjoy a whirlwind tour of the delights it had to offer and be back at work on Monday morning, albeit bleary eyed and a little bit late. clipped from www.smh.com.au Edited extract from How Good Are You? - Clean Living in a Dirty World by Julian Lee

Japanese whalers are taking the minke

In justifying the hunting the minke whale by Japanese call it as "the cockroach of the sea". So why eat cockroaches and call it research? Ironic how the minke whale was named after an 18th-century poacher, hey? Amazing that Norway had whale conservation laws in the 1700s:

clipped from www.abdn.ac.uk The minke is the smallest of the baleen (filter-feeding) whales and is found throughout the world's oceans, from the Arctic to the Antarctic. The minke is the whale most likely to be seen from the shore in the U.K. and Ireland, especially in Scotland, the Northern Isles and Western Ireland. It is rare in the Southern North Sea and Channel region. The story of this whale's name illustrates its blighted history. Minke was an 18th-century Norwegian whaler, infamous for regularly breaking the rules concerning the sizes (and therefore species) of whales that he was permitted at that time to hunt. Soon all the small whales became known as "Minke's whales". Eventually, it was formally adopted as the name for this small species.

Rudd: Mother of All Summits to futureproof Australia

He loves his summits, dun 'e? Global warming has to be at the top, one would have thought. Watch this space.

clipped from news.smh.com.au Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says a summit involving 1,000 Australians will be held to tackle 10 major problems that are facing Australia. The summit will be held at Parliament House in late April and is called Australia 2020. "The summit will bring together some of the best and brightest brains from across the country to tackle the long-term challenges confronting Australia's future," Mr Rudd said.

10 Green New Year Resolutions

Cut down on water use How much? Sydney Water will do everything you need for just $22. How hard? One phone call. Links WaterFix Sign up for GreenPower How much? Between $4 and $8.50 extra a week for the average family. How hard? A couple of phone calls. Links GreenPower scheme Green Electricity Watch How much? A 23W Megaman CFL bulb that replaces a standard 125W light costs $19.25 from Todae (www.todae.com.au). It is claimed to last 10 times longer than a conventional bulb. How hard? Get the stepladder out and do the whole house in a couple of hours. Links Phasing out of incandescents How much? Saves money. How hard? Stand up. Put one leg in front of the other. Repeat. Easy. Links National Physical Activity Guidelines 10,000 Steps Think before you buy How much? You could potentially save a lot. How hard? Just don't do it! Links Affluenza Eat locally Install solar hot water Learn to compost Plant some food Get active

2007 — when global warming finally cut through

clipped from www.desmogblog.com Hark, The Herald (And Lots of Other Papers) Finally Sing About The Climate 24 Dec 07 Big wake-up to global warming To illustrate, the Philadelphia Inquirer tracked the number of times the term "global warming" was mentioned in their paper over the years. In 2007 "global warming" was mentioned over 400 times, more than double any previous year. An attitude shift as inexorable as global warming itself this year brought world groups together to debate risks. "This was the year that global warming hit the mass radar screen, driven by a drumbeat of catastrophic predictions from top scientists, a jaw-dropping acceleration in polar ice melt..."

GWW 2007 Highlight — The UN Bali Climate Change Conference

I didn't have to look far back over 2007 for the year's climate change highlight — I didn't get past the exciting outcome from the UN Bali Climate Change for two weeks starting in early December. Trawling the Internet, I find I have been getting a much better sense of the nail-biting excitement from the Bali Conference bloggers, than from msm reports. And I have a gratifying sense that we have an active, informed, healthy blogosphere around the issue. The Climate Institute blog, for example, provides the blow-by-blow that lead to the culminations of the negotiations, "Science based targets had survived the process and made their way into a key part of the process towards Copenhagen in 2009."

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What's traditional about an explosive grenade harpoon?

Dr Kumi Kato, a lecturer in the school of languages and comparative cultural studies at the University of Queensland, dispassionately looks at the claims of the Japanese whalers to hunting rights based on cultural identity.

Articulately arguing for a sustainable way forward that recognises the claims of some Japanese to a whaling tradition, while exploding the 'research' myth, it bears republishing in full:

The whale hunt that knows no tradition

December 24, 2007

At the southern end of the Japanese island of Honshu is a small fishing village where community-based coastal whaling took place from the late 1600s to the early 1900s. Today, more than 100 years since the whaling ended there, the island is scattered with monuments dedicated to the spirits of whales caught in the region. Associated rituals and festivities continue, including daily prayers for the spirits of whales and dolphins by two elderly nuns.

It is true that whale meat, or more generally cetacean meat, had been - and in some regions still is - part of the Japanese diet. In some regions it is valued as celebratory food as it was closely linked with community unity based on collaborative labour, sharing of food, celebration and thanksgiving rituals, in which remorse was also expressed.

It is also true that whale meat was introduced as part of General MacArthur's regime to increase the protein intake of the starving nation after World War II. Older generations therefore associate whale with postwar food shortages. The meat was also used for school lunches, a practice reintroduced in recent years in some prefectures.

But small-scale coastal whaling largely diminished due to the transition to large-scale industrial whaling and the 1986 moratorium and subsequent ban on minke hunts for the coastal communities. Small-scale hunts for dolphins continue for a range of purposes, including sales to aquariums.

The claim by the Japanese Government that whale meat is part of Japanese culture is true in that it existed in this small-scale, community-based coastal whaling similar to the hunts of indigenous groups such as the Makah and Inuit, but this is, in my opinion, clearly separate from the large-scale industrial whaling conducted on the high seas.

If the Government is seriously committed to the maintenance of cultural tradition, the priority would be on the sustainable livelihood practices of coastal community fisheries, which may include a very limited number of whale hunts. It is human arrogance to assume harvest of any natural resource as a right but, if an inherent cultural right is to be granted to anyone, it would be the coastal communities.

This situation is comparable with mass clear-fell logging versus small-scale selected logging by specialised timber workers sustained by their knowledge, ethics and spirituality. A "wood culture" exists in the latter, the small-scale loggers who, with their knowledge, can make a positive contribution to today's environmental thinking. This would be the case with small-scale whalers and hunters. They have valuable knowledge that can inform us about sustainability.

Another argument Japan makes in favour of whaling is that it is for scientific research. Simply, if research destroys a species it should not be carried out, and if research is necessary to improve the ecological wellbeing of a species every effort must be made to minimise the impact of the research.

This is the fundamental consideration in any research. If the research was genuinely concerned with conservation of the humpback it would not be abandoned for a better bilateral relationship, or the hunt would not even have been considered in the first place. Humans are in no position to "cull" wild species, except in cases in which our past mistakes have skewed the natural balance and thus need to be corrected, such as with the cane toad.

Another issue requires urgent consideration: the reported high level of mercury in cetaceans like whales and dolphins. Two councillors from a coastal village, a birthplace of traditional whaling in Japan, recently spoke out about the dangerous level of mercury found in the locally harvested dolphin meat, some of which may have been used for school lunches. Reports and warnings have been issued about consumption of fish and cetacean products by the Ministry of the Health, Labour and Welfare, and the Japan Consumer Co-operative Union. This obviously has serious implications for consumers, as well as the wellbeing of the animals, which would benefit from urgent research.

The extent of the impact of humans on the planet is undeniable. This must be compensated for in every way possible, and we must keep changing unsustainable practices. Clearly it is time to move on.

Stop Japan's Whale Hunt: Sign the Daily Telegraph Petition

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Japan please stop your whalers killing for 'research'

We have a great relationship between our two countries, so I am sure we can resolve the whaling issue and move onto bigger an better things.

clipped from www.news.com.au Our petition, created in consultation with environmental campaigners Greenpeace, aims to show Japanese people the intensity of feeling in Australia about the annual slaughter. The petition’s words have been chosen carefully, with input from Greenpeace’s Japanese campaigners, in understanding of Japanese sensibilities. The hunting will stop only when the Japanese people and politicians realise what is really going on in the cold waters of the Antarctic. So put your name to our petition - and tell your friends and family to do thse same - and help stop the whale hunt.

Rudd government more different by the day

The real 'me-too' nature of the one-month old Australian Federal Labor is becoming more apparent with each passing day.


Day One. Kevin Rudd made good his election promise by triggering the instrument that sets in process the Australian Government ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, as his first act of government. It was signed hours after the new Labor cabinet was sworn in by the Governor-General, Sir Michael Jeffrey.

Although climate change policy was a clear point of difference for Labor, Rudd's immediate ratification of Kyoto yielded maximum symbolic impact. For the Australian electorate the surprise was not the signing, but the timing. Kev was telling us, "Ok, I'm onto it".

For the outside world, Rudd's first act of a few hours old government clearly signalled a dramatic departure from Howard's active, overt and covert opposition to the Kyoto Protocol. The significance was not lost on China Daily...

CANBERRA - Australia's new prime minister, Kevin Rudd, took the oath of office on Monday and immediately signed documents to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, ending his country's long-held opposition to the global climate agreement.

...not the Beeb...

Australian Labor Party leader Kevin Rudd has been sworn in as prime minister, following a landslide victory in parliamentary elections last week. Immediately after the ceremony, he signed documents to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, reversing the previous administration's policy. "This is the first official act of the new Australian government," he said.

...neither on the NYTimes...

CANBERRA, Australia — Kevin Rudd, the new prime minister of Australia, said on Monday that he had signed the paperwork to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, making good on an election promise that overturns a decade of opposition to the international global warming pact.

...and nor the rest of the world...

And the UN Climate Conference delegates assembling in Bali now loved it, giving Australia a rousing applause that would make an AA convention blush.

Everyone noted the significance... "Australia's new stance on Kyoto will isolate the US as the only developed nation not to have ratified the treaty." read the BBC.

Another dramatic departure from the Liberal's core policy of slavishly following Washington everywhere.


Day Ten. Australia, PNG to 'restore' relationship

Instead of acting the regional bully, the Rudd government has signalled our intentions to move past blunderbuss and fishnet stockings diplomacy.

Australia and Papua New Guinea will work on restoring their relationship after a frosty period under the previous Howard government. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his PNG counterpart Michael Somare agreed to restore contact after a bilateral meeting in Bali on Thursday on the sidelines of the United Nations climate change conference. The relationship soured over PNG's involvement in helping disgraced former Solomon Islands attorney-general Julian Moti evade an Australian extradition attempt. But Mr Rudd said both countries were determined to repair the damage after a "good and long" conversation. "I said to Sir Michael, and he agreed, that it was time to turn a new page in Australia's relationship with Papua New Guinea," Mr Rudd told reporters at the Australian consulate. "This relationship has been through a very difficult period in recent times. There has, in effect, been a freeze on ministerial contact between the two governments. I do not believe that's an appropriate way forward for the future. "We have to get on with the business of reviewing the totality of our relationship and taking that relationship forward." Ministerial relations between the two nations will resume and a top-level delegation of ministers will visit PNG early next year for an Australian-PNG Ministerial Forum. Foreign Minister Stephen Smith will head the Australian delegation, which will also include Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and economist Ross Garnaut, who is conducting the Rudd government's climate change review. "This is a critical relationship for Australia. We've got to get this relationship right," he said. The two leaders discussed climate change and deforestation. Australian officials will visit Port Moresby in January to discuss ways to stop the cutting down of PNG's rainforests.

Day Fifteen. Parliament to sit for 15 days longer under Rudd

Under the Howard Government it was unusual for the Upper or Lower House to sit on a Friday but now the House of Representatives will regularly sit five days a week.

Apart from allowing greater accountability and scrutiny, and greater access for the backbench, hopefully Australia is getting 25% greater productivity per ton of carbon emissions spent schlepping the parliamentarians in and out of Canberra.


Day Nineteen. Australia leads 31 countries in formal whaling protest to the Japanese Government

Er... Howard would not have done that. He never lifted a finger to stop the Japanese whalers conducting their 'research' in the Antarctic Whale Sanctuary that Australia has responsibility for protecting. To be fair, we always had strong leadership in the International Whaling Commissions under Howard. But he would never have risked ruffling diplomatic feathers with our biggest trading partner.

The Federal Government and anti-whaling groups today welcomed as a small victory Japan's decision to suspend the planned kill of 50 humpbacks. But they have pledged to maintain pressure on Tokyo to end the so-called scientific whaling program. Japan said its decision not to catch humpbacks for "one year or two" came after consultation with the International Whaling Commission (IWC), although it noted the strength of the Australian opposition to the annual hunt.

There is a bit of wow factor here. How will this affect the relationship between our two countries, where the whaling issue being is the only note of discord in an otherwise harmonious relationship? Not a jot, I reckon, but who knows? The whaling lobby in Japan must be powerful to persist with their pursuit in the face of diminishing demand for whale meat.


Day Twenty. Federal Government Paves Way for Haneef To Work In Australia

Former terrorism suspect Mohamed Haneef is keen to reapply for his position at the Gold Coast Hospital after the federal government yesterday paved the way for his return. New Labor Immigration Minister Chris Evans said the Indian national was entitled to return to work after the full bench of the Federal Court upheld a judge's earlier decision to reinstate his work visa. The doctor's visa was withdrawn by the former Howard government on character grounds despite terrorism charges against him being dropped. Dr Haneef's Brisbane-based lawyer Peter Russo today informed the devout Muslim, who is currently in Mecca with his wife and mother, of Mr Evans' decision not to appeal the court's ruling.

Rudd's Government is signalling that it is not going to run the War on Terror as one of Howard's famous Culture Wars. I so hope this is born out. I am bored to death of 'em. Not only did this culture-skirmish make for bumpy relations with India and discredit us in their eyes, the Queensland hospital system copped collateral damage by losing a good doctor and the generation of bad PR for future overseas recruitments.


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Revolving Doors' reaction to Bali breakthrough

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"YES!"

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