Wednesday, April 05, 2006

The end of our epoch? All in good Time #2

Post a blog entry on how successfully Time Magazine's cover "Be Worried. Be Very Worried" gets picked up by the Internet, and the skeptics swarm in, armed with ad hominem attacks and familiar arguments.

And, lately, loaded with links to the works of Messrs. Harrison Hieb and Monte Hieb.

The following comment is a classic denialist-in-service attack:

At 9:46 AM EST, E L Frederick reckons this...

In the mean time, I suggest you get yourself an education and stop listening to the celebrities and the junk science.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html

At 11:57 AM EST, Wadard reckons this...

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html

Education? OK, I'll play. Who the hell are Monte Hieb and Harrison Hieb and what is their background in the field of climate science? Why does their site link to a whole bunch of fossil-fuel info links?


If I am looking for an 'education' on mining engineering, I would possibly consult Monte Hieb, since he worked as chief engineer for the West Virginia Office of Miner’s Safety. If I were an fossil hobbyist I would probably look at his amateur fossil website.

But he is not a climate scientist, which is why he has not published any scientific papers on causes of global warming. A search through the peer-review scientific journals where all new claims are tested and confirmed by scientists specialising in the field shows no ground-breaking advances in understanding by Monte Hieb or Harrison Hieb.

However he has published a lot of opinion pieces on global cooling, and the role of water vapour in global warming. On the latter makes this colourful claim:

Water Vapor Rules

By Monte Hieb

Just how much of the "Greenhouse Effect" is caused by human activity?

It is about 0.28%, if water vapor is taken into account-- about 5.53%, if not.


I won't take you through it because, until it is verified by peers, it is opinion masquerading as science, targeted to a gullible public. If I was looking for a real education on the role of water vapour I would get it from the horses mouths' themselves; the scientific discussion at Realclimate.org is a good place to start, and is positively swimming with references to peer-reviewed science.

If Hieb is not interested in advancing scientific understanding via the time-honoured peer-review method, it's most likely that his agenda is to create the impression that there is scientific doubt about global warming. A conspiracy? Who benefits - well, his employer - the coal industry. While the public believes there is doubt among scientists, there is less political will for a carbon tax. So people like Hieb publish junk science to create the public conditions that help the fossil-fuel industry stall the inevitable tax on carbon emissions.

But at what cost to us? An impost so large, it is intergenerational one.Climbing temperatures. Melting glaciers. Rising seas. All over the earth we're feeling the heat. Why isn't Washington? It is worth noting that this is the second occasion that Time Magazine has written a cover story on global warming.

On April 9, 2001 their cover read "GLOBAL WARMING. Climbing temperatures. Melting glaciers. Rising seas. All over the earth we're feeling the heat. Why isn't Washington?"

Almost exactly five years later this question remains utterly unanswered. No progress has been made by either the Australian and US governments to reduce our emissions today.

That is a frying shame.


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153 comments:

jazzycat said...

The most global warming I see is from the hot air coming from nut case Al Gore and other kooky liberals....

Glitch said...

Uh, a shame those scientists that warned against extrapolating from a small range of data aren't around today to caution you about the same thing.

(changes in our Sun are the most likely cause of long-term climate change (warming and cooling)...please 'splain to me how reducing carbon dioxide emissions will impact our sun...

(you know I love you though, right???? :))

E L Frederick said...

Exactly why is this NOT just a normal process of the Earth returning back to it's "normal" ecological status?

We know that the Earth was much warmer, and that the majority of what we consider "dry land" was under water at the time of the dinosaurs.

The Earth could very well be warming, but so what! Just because Flordia is going to be underwater and Nebraska is going to be the new beach, I don't see a reason to freak out.

I seriously doubt that us insignifant little insects called "man" are having that much effect on the global climate.

If we manage to kill each other off, it's just an opprotunity for nature to make a new start.

Wadard said...

I seriously doubt that us insignifant little insects called "man" are having that much effect on the global climate.

Speak for yourself "man".

The Earth could very well be warming, but so what! Just because Flordia is going to be underwater and Nebraska is going to be the new beach, I don't see a reason to freak out.

Nebraska is also going to be a dust bowl as it will not be able to retain soil moisture, the climate models say. You should be happy about the prospect of having lots more sand to bury you head in.

By the way it was a bit gutless what you did over at your blog, just thought you should know.

E L Frederick said...

Speak for yourself "man".

I was speaking for myself... Who else would I be speaking for? I'm pretty sure I didn't make any claims to speak for anyone than me... Put words in someone else mouth.

... the climate models say.

That's exactly the problem. Your baseing all this data on climate models that have yet to be proven. We do not have nearly a large enough sample of climatic data to prove or disprove anything.

You can claim that man is making a difference, you can show data that seems to back that up, but in the end, until we have several thousands years of climate data, we aren't going to be able to prove or disprove anything.

The Earth is more than sixty five million years old. How can you claim to know anything about the natural climate of the planet when you only have at most two hundred years of scientific climatic data?

As for burying my head in the sand, I just choose not to trust the theory of "weathermen" who claim to have a crystal ball. Most of the time they can't even get the weather right for the next five days, why should I believe them about what's going to happen over the next hundred?

I'd have as much luck using a tarot cards.

E L Frederick said...

In the mean time, I suggest you get yourself an education and stop listening to the celebrities and the junk science.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html

Wadard said...

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html

Education?? OK, I'll play. Who the hell are Monte Hieb and Harrison Hieb and what is their background in the field of climate science? Why does their site link to a whole bunch of fossil-fuel info links? Assuming it is not completely jaundiced would I take info that is 10 years old when I can go directly to RealClimate.org where the fair dinkum scientists currently researching in the actual field actually are taking time out to interface with the public to help us with our appreciation of global warming.

I had a look at your link and, with respect, it is the same nonesense spewed out by the fossil-fuel lobby PR groups. Talking points and all, even though they are the old ones.

E L Frederick said...

I've pretty much summed up my opinion with the website that I gave you in one of the previous comments. If you have specific arguments or items you would like to comment on, I suggest you post it here on your blog, or you can email it to me directly.

I don't see any reason not to have the discussion on your home turf.

Wadard said...

No worries. I just wanted to unravel your mate, that's all. He threw down the gauntlet, you seem very protective of him.

No worries.

I've pretty much summed up my opinion with the website that I gave you ...

And I have addressed you opinion - who are these people Monte Hieb and Harrison Hieb? They look like amature fossil-fuel lobbyist PR people, not real climate scientists. They are pushing an oil-industry PR agenda. They argue on the one hand that mankind does NOT contribute to global warming, and then on the other hand they argued the opposite; that there is another ice-age due in 10K years so we need more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to heat up the planet and off-set this coming ice-age.

So which opinion do you hold? Current rate of GW is anthropogenic, or not?

E L Frederick said...

My opinion would be that man is incapable of producing enough green house gas to impact the planet.

The climate is doing what the climate does, and has done for millions of years.

E L Frederick said...

Since you seem, to be the math expert; try this. Calculate the volume of atomosphere the Earth has. Taking into account the lowering air-pressure at high altitudes, and the mass of the earth.

Then calculate the amount of natural carbon added tothe system by animal life, volcanoes, etc. Then decrease that amount by the amount used by all the plantlife.

The compare that amount to the amount that is added by man.

And then compare that to the amount of carbon needed to change the concentration of CO2 in the atomosphere by 1 part per trillion.

Wadard said...

The man's insignificant contributions argument doesn't hold when you realise that the 4% contribution to atmospheric co2 from man is almost all that is needed to take earths ecosystems to a tipping point.

My opinion would be that man is incapable of producing enough green house gas to impact the planet.

Well, peak oil theory tells us that man is smart enough to have sucked out half the C02 that the biosphere had sucked out of the atmosphere, stabilising conditions for life, and then sequestered as oil.

You might think man is insignificant but that's ignoring the facts around you.

Wadard said...

The compare that amount to the amount that is added by man.

And then compare that to the amount of carbon needed to change the concentration of CO2 in the atomosphere by 1 part per trillion.


E L, dude, in the 1889's the atmosphere had 293ppm co2, in 1996 it is 381ppm (the highest yet).

From 1880 to 1940 there was a warming of just a quarter of a degree. Increase in global surface temperature over past century: 0.8°C
Increase over last three decades: 0.6°C

Artic ice sheets are melting, sea levels are rising. There are more extreme weather event occuring more frequently, the permafrost is defrosting, releasing more 'natural carbon dioxide' from the rotting peat that would otherwise stay trapped. The earth albedo is lowering and biodiversity, that great big carbon cycle pump, is diminishing.

To stop this and stabilise the climate the consensus is appearing to be to reduce emissions by 60% of pre 1990 levels by 2050. Indications are we CAN do it yet still grow economies at 2.1%pa. I just posted about it. Feel free.

Then, my friend, at 60% of pre 1990 emissions levels, you can make a better claim to insignificance of man's contributions. And I'll buy you a beer if the one-world government deems that drinking beer is not a climate threat ;)

David said...

Great post Wadard. You certainly get some kooky commenters to your site!

Raso said...

I just read the article by Hieb & Hieb, did a search on their names, and found this post.

You note that, “skeptics swarm in, armed with ad hominem attacks and familiar arguments.” Drive-by ad hominem is the bane of bloggers!

However, you then question the credentials of Hieb & Hieb (which is the logical fallacy of argumentum ad verecundiam) after what appears to be a superficial look, and state, “I won't take you through it because, until it is verified by peers, it is opinion masquerading as science, targeted to a gullible public.”

Perhaps your credentials are buried somewhere on this site – I don’t care to search – but the about page mentions something about a King’s forest; not exactly informative or authoritative.

But rather than debunking the well documented work of Hieb & Hieb, you merely question their credentials and side step proving your point on the crutch of a logical fallacy.

Will you consider me pointing this out to be ad hominem?

Anonymous said...

all this talk of climate models??? The computer models they use now for forecasting, can't even tell if it going to rain tomorrow,little lone what the climate will be like 10,20,50 years from now!

Melli said...

when these scientists and governmental characters who think they can scare us all into acting like a herd of sheep can show me proof that any of what they're saying is in any way true, i might begin to beleive them. as it is, it seems there are flaws within everything they are presenting to us.

climatic data isn't going to be accurate. why? because the people doing the bloody research dont have a clue what's going to be impacting our atmospheric concentrations of anything.these climate models use just predictions for their graphs and data, not historical evidence!

these stations that they measure how much carbon dioxide is in the air, it's amazing how many are rigged in the stupidest places! theres some near volcanoes! up to 75% of what comes out of a volcano is carbon dioxide!




i think that the people who beleive Al Gore and who were scared of his "predictions" need to wke up and realise that there is nothing going on.

the only inconvenient truths that we need to worry about are our world leaders.


xx

Diogenes said...

Since man is responsible for global warming, I need help in understanding a few things. Why is ice-covered Greenland called Greenland? Why is it that when mankind causes global warming by producing mass quantities of carbon dioxide through all manner of post Industrial Revolution devices such as automobiles, jets and coal fired power plants; the ice on Greenland recedes and reveals villages that were settled more than 1000 years ago? What caused the ice to melt in the first place to allow the establishment of the villages? Why were the polar ice caps on Mars receding at the same time ours were? Please keep your response from being any more technical than necessary as you are dealing with the American public here, not climatologists.

bi -- International Journal of Inactivism said...

Greenfyre has posted a debunking of the "quiz", which is now on the web sites of the FCPP and the Heartland Institute.

Oh, the very first comment is a jab at Al Gore? Hahahah...

Anonymous said...

A very late reply, but junk never dies. I've now run again into
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/global_warming.html
in the comments section of "Watts Up With That".

I played along and looked into some of the data presented. Table 1 claims the DOE as its source in the caption. If you follow the link in footnote 1 you will notice that the columns "man-mad additions" and "natural additions", which are crucial to Hieb's argument, are not to be found on the DOE page. The second source claimed by Hieb is the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, which refers its readers to the IPCC reports for details:
http://www.ieagreen.org.uk/climate.html

So the claim by Hieb rests on unsourced data, which is given credence by fake references. Yay.

bluegrue

April said...

Peers are often not willing to review work that might suggestion global warming detraction. At this moment, intellectual capital is backed by adherence to the theory that human activity is causing/contributing to a warming and increasing carboniferous planet. Why would anyone currently positioned as an authority risk this capital by taking a serious look at that work which would only detract from such capital?

The good news is that we should be able to get a sense of the validity of a theory on our own by asking a few simple questions:

1) Do I believe the data-gathering methodology was rigorous?
2) Do I believe that the data was interpreted in a manner that was a) internally consistent? and b) considerate of phenoma external to that tested?
3) Do I believe that the explanitory theory is a logical result of the data?

quintavoc said...

Peer review is indeed a fine way of checking on scientific processes and methodology. However, it does have a serious weakness. That is the honesty of the peers, which is often in turn subject to the extent to which they are financially dependent on their views rather than any detracting theories.

Anonymous said...

Albert Einstein was "just" a patent clerk. That does not make his "theories" any less true. Who was responsible for the demise of the dinosaurs?

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