Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Arctic sea ice extent running close to record

There is a bet on amongst the climate scientist blogging community, and Stoat is keeping an eye on his investment. He's the one who reckons the record won't be broken this season.

mt called me a "polyanna" (presumably by analogy to "polynyas") for betting on the high side. So let me clarify: my "prediction" was based purely on my reading of the statistics of the time series to-date: a record is rarely followed by another. If we have entered a new regime, then my reasonning is invalid. At the moment, I don't know. The extent is barely above last years, but the ice is thinner, as as NB points out you can see the cracks. Bets are still (formally) open, especially to anyone so confident of low ice that they are prepared to offer 2-1 odds :-), or even odds on extent substnatially (sic or hic?) lower than last year.

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